Statistics and data play a growing role in modern football management, and now there’s a new online tool that uses some of that data to calculate which country will win World Cup 2010.
The World Cup prediction - click to enlarge
How does it work, what do scientists think of it, and will it get the right result?
The Castrol Football website tries to rank teams and players according to various objective measurements. It tracks the performance of this year’s World Cup teams and players over the past 10 years. Then it calculates an attack/defence rating.
Finally it simulates the tournament, working out the probability of each team advancing to the next round.
Among the tool’s predictions, England face France in the quarter finals (which side would Irish fans be on for that one?) and Brazil beat Spain in the final.
Probable flaws?
One sports science site, SportsScientists.com, has a good analysis of some of the key assumptions behind the tool. Dr Ross Tucker argues in his blog on the site that:
- This kind of analysis may be too “historically-heavy”. “They have taken 10 years’ worth of results, and I would argue that the results of matches in 2000 are basically irrelevant to matches in 2010, since no team has the same players or coaches, ” Dr Tucker writes. “In fact, I’d go so far as to say that for some teams, 2009 results are distant memories, and new players, new team dynamics, and in some cases, new coaches mean that past performance does not predict future performance very well at all.”
- Castrol’s tool doesn’t respond to current events. “Injuries, confidence and momentum (for example, France look to be in mighty trouble, but two wins and they become a dangerous team) and individual ability make sport unpredictable – that’s the beauty of sport, after all.”
Learn more
Try the Castrol Football website’s calculator and check out its live tracker of World Cup statistics – from passes completed to the total calories eaten by players
